Can India become an Upper Middle Income country in the
Nations are not defined in the classical developed vs. developing paradigm these days. They are instead categorized as Low-Income Countries, Middle-Income countries and High-Income countries. Middle Income Countries or (MIC) are those nations that boast a per capita Gross National Income (GNI) that is between $1086 and $13205. India with a per capita GNI of $2048 falls in the Lower Middle-Income category of countries and will need to touch a figure of $4,256 to become an Upper Middle-Income country, which category includes nations with a per capita GNI up to $13,205.
According to CRISIL India is all set to become an Upper Middle Income country by as early as 203i, in the process becoming the third largest economy in the world at a $7 trillion turnover which is double what it is now. This increase in the size of the economy should have a tremendous impact on the quality of life of the average Indian if the growth that leads to it is broad-based. It will also substantially enhance India’s geo-strategic standing in the world, especially via a resurgent China against whom the nation will be able to take a more decisive stand vis-à-vis the long-festering border dispute and bring the issue to a favourable conclusion.
India’s pre-eminent position would be virtually unchallenged in the entire South Asian region what with the dragon being in the throes of its demographic and economic collapse. It would also be able to conduct its strategic and trade relations with the North American block and Europe in a manner that keeps, India’s self-interest paramount. At the same time, India would do well to enhance its outreach towards the Middle East, Africa and South America.
India will hit a sweet spot which will allow it to catapult itself to the High Income group of nations-hopefully by 2047.
